Let's look at the situation from a business and space perspective.

IPO Stock Price

First, let's look at the stock price on the first day of the IPO.

$160.95 (Initial price: $150) P/S ratio 90-110x (P/S = Market capitalization ÷ Annual sales)

This indicates a significant expectation for growth.

Many people are investing because they believe that SpaceX will transform from a rocket company into a global communication, defense, and AI infrastructure company.

However, while some of this has been initiated, much of it is just talk. And I think the fact that it's trading at such a high price is abnormal.

The marketing tactics and S&P 500 rule changes are also clever. Many people will unknowingly be forced to buy SpaceX stock due to changes in the S&P 500 rules.

In short, large investors seem to be trying to sell their shares to 일반인 to avoid risk, essentially getting rid of risky SpaceX shares. In other words, it's about taking profits.

It seems that even though the stock may not yet be profitable, it is being sold at a high price because it might become much more valuable in the future.

However, what I say as an individual won't really affect the stock price, so don't worry too much about it. Consider this my own musings.

The Danger of Kessler Syndrome

Currently, the number of satellites is increasing exponentially.

As a result, there is an increasingly high probability that Kessler syndrome will occur within 30 years.

Satellites are largely concentrated in similar orbits. Many Starlink satellites fly in connected formations on the same orbit.

If a large-scale collision chain occurs, it could significantly restrict the operation of low Earth orbit constellations like Starlink. Space debris remains in space for a long time.

This scenario is quite possible within a 30-year timeframe. If that happens, we won't be able to talk about space development anymore. The barrier to going into space will increase. There will be competition for satellite orbits. I think it's too risky to invest in SpaceX with the same mindset as investing in terrestrial businesses, given that there is a certain possibility of a future where space becomes a dangerous place.

Elon Musk says that space is like a vast, empty void. However, even if it's "empty," there are decades-old pieces of space debris lingering in that space.

Here is the problem:

Problem

• It assumes that space is an unlimited resource that can be used freely.
• In reality, usable space is limited.
• There is a high probability that orbits will overlap after several decades. This has already begun.
• There is a possibility that those who launch rockets and satellites may have to bear the cost of recovery through institutionalization in several decades.
• Large shareholders are taking profits based on the current projections (this is already happening).
• General shareholders, the longer they hold their shares, will increasingly bear the risks and costs associated with space. It is clear that profitability will deteriorate in the future.
• Large shareholders will pass the risk to general shareholders by selling their stocks.
• In the future, as space development becomes an era of bearing expenses such as satellite recovery fees, there is a high possibility that these expenses will increase significantly.
• (Prediction) Large shareholders are unlikely to bear the cost of recovery if problems arise with SpaceX in the future.
• Large shareholders are unlikely to pay for things like space cleanup for businesses they have already sold.

Investing at inflated stock prices, having taken profits for decades under such circumstances is a very risky investment.

In any case, investing in SpaceX's IPO could result in significant losses over several decades.

Even if it's not within a few decades, the emergence of competing rocket development companies would make this high stock price unsustainable and increase the risk of a sharp decline.

Even with a well-executed scenario where growth leads to a 10x increase in sales in 10-15 years, it is likely that even then, it will only be enough to justify the current stock price, and dividends are unlikely for some time, and risks will dominate in the short term.

Under such circumstances, large shareholders' lock-up period expirations and subsequent selling pressure are looming. Even if there are temporary increases due to supply and demand or hype, holding it for even a year might be optimistic.

The karma of space capitalism is a structure where those who take profits early do not bear the consequences, but rather latecomers, general shareholders, and future generations will have to pay the bill.

In the coming years, I plan to observe SpaceX's performance and see how things unfold in the future.